Scenario planning with a sociological eye : augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the future of Scotland and the UK
MacKay, R. Bradley and Stoyanova, Veselina (2017) Scenario planning with a sociological eye : augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the future of Scotland and the UK. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124. pp. 88-100. ISSN 0040-1625 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.026)
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Abstract
This paper draws on a social theory-informed understanding of causality to illustrate how notions of agent–structure interactions can enhance the intuitive logics (IL) approach to scenario planning. It incorporates concepts such as the 'subjective' predispositions of agency, 'objective' structures of social systems, activity dependence, unintended consequences of action and event-time temporality in the IL method to augment causal analysis in the scenario development process. The paper illustrates the social theory-informed IL framework through its application to a scenario exercise undertaken in the lead-up to the Scottish referendum on independence from the United Kingdom on September 18th, 2014. The central thesis of the paper is that agent–structure interactions underpin the unfolding of futures in social systems by both constraining and enabling the range of possible futures that can emerge.
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Item type: Article ID code: 57979 Dates: DateEvent30 November 2017Published9 September 2016Published Online22 August 2016AcceptedSubjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Risk Management Department: Strathclyde Business School > Strategy and Organisation Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 28 Sep 2016 15:23 Last modified: 01 Sep 2024 01:14 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/57979