Expert judgement in resource forecasting : insights form the application of the Delphi method
Hird, Abigail and Kreiling, Laura (2016) Expert judgement in resource forecasting : insights form the application of the Delphi method. In: 23rd EurOMA Conference, 2016-06-19 - 2016-06-22, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU).
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Abstract
Through application in a world-leading automotive business, this paper explores the practicalities of applying a new method for forecasting resource requirements in the absence of data. The method involves a one off effort to capture expert knowledge in a very structured fashion leading to the formation of regression equations for prediction. Creating such models creates a new conundrum: how can quantitative forecasting models, constructed through structured expert estimations, be validated and accepted in the absence of data? We employ Delphi and find that, with adaptation, it can lead to acceptance of the models generated using the new data-less method.
ORCID iDs
Hird, Abigail ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5938-2726 and Kreiling, Laura ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2035-735X;-
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Item type: Conference or Workshop Item(Paper) ID code: 57642 Dates: DateEvent21 June 2016Published23 February 2016AcceptedSubjects: Technology > Manufactures Department: Faculty of Engineering > Design, Manufacture and Engineering Management Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 01 Sep 2016 11:43 Last modified: 30 Nov 2024 01:34 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/57642