Outlook and appraisal [June 2016]

Ashcroft, Brian (2016) Outlook and appraisal [June 2016]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 40 (1). pp. 3-23. ISSN 2046-5378

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Output and jobs growth in the Scottish economy has weakened since we last reported in March 2016. After GDP data revisions it is now clear that with growth of only 0.1% in the second quarter last year and then a fall of -0.1% in the third quarter, the Scottish economy came perilously close to a recession in 2015 and despite the slight upturn to 0.2%; growth in the fourth quarter may fail to avoid a recession in the coming months.