Forecasts of the Scottish economy [June 2016]

Allan, Grant (2016) Forecasts of the Scottish economy [June 2016]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 40 (1). pp. 24-34. ISSN 2046-5378

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Growth in Scotland continues to be weak, with survey indicators suggesting that the first half of 2016 has seen a period of subdued activity. Growth slowed during the second half of 2015, with the third quarter seeing a decline in GDP in Scotland, although growth was positive (1.9%) over the year as a whole. While the global environment c ontinues to look particularly muted – with exports likely to slow further from already insipid levels, as global trade growth remains muted – the domestic drivers of Scottish economic growth through 2015 and the first half of 2016, specifically investment and household spending, appear to be weaker in Scotland than across the UK as a whole. We have therefore revised down our growth forecasts for 2016, 2017 and 2018, with an associated worsening of the Scottish labour market expected over this period.