Probabilistic real-time thermal rating forecasting for overhead lines by conditionally heteroscedastic auto-regressive models

Fan, Fulin and Bell, Keith and Infield, David (2017) Probabilistic real-time thermal rating forecasting for overhead lines by conditionally heteroscedastic auto-regressive models. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, 32 (4). pp. 1881-1890. ISSN 0885-8977 (https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRD.2016.2577140)

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Abstract

Conventional approaches to forecasting of real-time thermal ratings (RTTRs) provide only single point estimates with no indication of the size or distribution of possible errors. This paper describes weather based methods to estimate probabilistic RTTR forecasts for overhead lines which can be used by a system operator within a chosen risk policy with respect to probability of a rating being exceeded. Predictive centres of weather conditions are estimated as a sum of residuals predicted by a suitable auto-regressive model and temporal trends fitted by Fourier series. Conditional heteroscedasticity of the predictive distribution is modelled as a linear function of recent changes in residuals within one hour for air temperature and wind speed or concentration of recent wind direction observations within two hours. A technique of minimum continuous ranked probability score estimation is used to estimate predictive distributions. Numerous RTTRs for a particular span are generated by a combination of the Monte Carlo method where weather inputs are randomly sampled from the modelled predictive distributions at a particular future moment and a thermal model of overhead conductors. Kernel density estimation is then used to smooth and estimate the percentiles of RTTR forecasts which are then compared with actual ratings and discussed alongside practical issues around use of RTTR forecasts.

ORCID iDs

Fan, Fulin ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2450-6877, Bell, Keith ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9612-7345 and Infield, David;
  • Item type:Article
    ID code:56580
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    31 August 2017
    Published
    6 June 2016
    Published Online
    22 May 2016
    Accepted
    Notes:(c) 2016 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.
    Subjects:Technology > Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
    Department:Faculty of Engineering > Electronic and Electrical Engineering
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:02 Jun 2016 00:10
    Last modified:20 Nov 2024 01:12
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/56580
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