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Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation

Derbyshire, James and Wright, George (2016) Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation. International Journal of Forecasting. ISSN 0169-2070 (In Press)

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Abstract

This paper shows the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘Intuitive Logics’, to be, in practice, overly-focused on uncovering cause of one type, known as ‘efficient cause’. We outline and apply a broader consideration of cause, leading to a more sophisticated analysis of uncertainty. Our focus is on incorporation of Aristotle’s nuanced analysis of causation. We incorporate the features of our augmented scenario development approach in a practical step-by-step methodology and draw out several implications for expert knowledge elicitation.