Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation

Derbyshire, James and Wright, George (2017) Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation. International Journal of Forecasting, 33 (1). pp. 254-266. ISSN 0169-2070 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004)

[thumbnail of Derbyshire-Wright-IJF2016-augmenting-the-Intuitive-Logics-scenario-planning-method]
Preview
 Text. Filename: Derbyshire_Wright_IJF2016_augmenting_the_Intuitive_Logics_scenario_planning_method.pdf
Final Published Version
License: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 logo
Download (625kB)| Preview

Abstract

This paper shows the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘Intuitive Logics’, to be, in practice, overly-focused on uncovering cause of one type, known as ‘efficient cause’. We outline and apply a broader consideration of cause, leading to a more sophisticated analysis of uncertainty. Our focus is on incorporation of Aristotle’s nuanced analysis of causation. We incorporate the features of our augmented scenario development approach in a practical step-by-step methodology and draw out several implications for expert knowledge elicitation.

ORCID iDs

Derbyshire, James and Wright, George ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4350-7800;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)