Consistency of ground-motion predictions from the past four decades : Peak ground velocity and displacement, Arias intensity and relative significant duration

Douglas, John (2012) Consistency of ground-motion predictions from the past four decades : Peak ground velocity and displacement, Arias intensity and relative significant duration. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 10 (5). pp. 1339-1356. ISSN 1573-1456

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Abstract

Due to the limited observational datasets available for the derivation of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) there is always epistemic uncertainty in the estimated median ground motion. Since the quality and quantity of strong-motion datasets is constantly increasing it would be expected that the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction (related to lack of knowledge and data) is decreasing. This article is a continuation of the study of Douglas (Bull Earthq Eng 8(6):1515-1526, 2010) for ground-motion parameters other than peak ground acceleration (PGA) and elastic response spectral acceleration (SA). The epistemic uncertainty in the prediction of peak ground velocity and displacement, Arias intensity and relative significant duration is investigated by plotting predictions from dozens of GMPEs for these parameters against date of publication for three scenarios. In agreement with the previous study, all ground-motion parameters considered show high epistemic uncertainty (often even higher than previously reported for PGA and SA), suggesting that research efforts for the development of GMPEs for these parameters should continue and that it is vital that this uncertainty is accounted for in seismic hazard assessments. The epistemic uncertainty in the prediction of relative significant duration, however, appears to be much lower than any other strong-motion parameter, which suggests that currently available GMPEs for this intensity measure are sufficiently mature.