Preparing for the future : development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation

Derbyshire, James and Wright, George (2014) Preparing for the future : development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 82. pp. 215-225. ISSN 0040-1625

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    Abstract

    Abstract This paper demonstrates that the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planning emphasises the causal unfolding of future events and that this emphasis limits its ability to aid preparation for the future, for example by giving a misleading impression as to the usefulness of ‘weak signals’ or ‘early warnings’. We argue for the benefits of an alternative method that views uncertainty as originating from indeterminism. We develop and illustrate an ‘antifragile’ approach to preparing for the future and present it as a step-by-step, non-deterministic methodology that can be used as a replacement for, or as a complement to, the causally-focused approach of scenario planning.