Review of the quarter's economic trends [January 1981]

Bell, D.N.F. and Hamilton, D. and Harrigan, F. and Jowett, A. and Kirwan, F. and McGilvray, J. and O'Donnell, N. and Orton, I. and Simpson, D. and Tait, E. and Walker, J. and Wingfield, A. (1981) Review of the quarter's economic trends [January 1981]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 6 (3). pp. 1-4. ISSN 0306-7866

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The UK recession has intensified. Belying earlier forecasts the current downturn is proving more severe and probably more prolonged than its precursor of 1974-75. The overall level of outputs is estimated to have fallen by 2.5 - 3 % during the past year. A further, though less marked, fall is predicted for 1981, with at best a hesitant recovery emerging in the latter half of the year. Global macroeconomic trends are examined as well as labour market conditions.