Picture of boy being examining by doctor at a tuberculosis sanatorium

Understanding our future through Open Access research about our past...

Strathprints makes available scholarly Open Access content by researchers in the Centre for the Social History of Health & Healthcare (CSHHH), based within the School of Humanities, and considered Scotland's leading centre for the history of health and medicine.

Research at CSHHH explores the modern world since 1800 in locations as diverse as the UK, Asia, Africa, North America, and Europe. Areas of specialism include contraception and sexuality; family health and medical services; occupational health and medicine; disability; the history of psychiatry; conflict and warfare; and, drugs, pharmaceuticals and intoxicants.

Explore the Open Access research of the Centre for the Social History of Health and Healthcare. Or explore all of Strathclyde's Open Access research...

Image: Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust. Wellcome Collection - CC-BY.

A bounded model of time variation in trend inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips curve

Chan, Joshua C. C. and Koop, Gary and Potter, Simon M. (2016) A bounded model of time variation in trend inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips curve. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31 (3). pp. 551-565. ISSN 0883-7252

PDF (Chan-Koop-Potter-JAE-2014-bounded-model-of-time-variation-in-trend-inflation)
Accepted Author Manuscript

Download (685kB) | Preview


In this paper, we develop a bivariate unobserved components model for in‡ation and unemployment. The unobserved components are trend in‡ation and the non-accelerating in‡ation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Our model also incorporates a time-varying Phillips curve and time-varying in‡ation persistence. What sets this paper apart from the existing literature is that we do not use unbounded random walks for the unobserved components, but rather use bounded random walks. For instance, NAIRU is assumed to evolve within bounds. Our empirical work shows the importance of bounding. We …nd that our bounded bivariate model forecasts better than many alternatives, including a version of our model with unbounded unobserved components. Our model also yields sensible estimates of trend in‡ation, NAIRU, in‡ation persistence and the slope of the Phillips curve.