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The Asia-Pacific tourism workforce of the future : using Delphi techniques to identify possible scenarios

Solnet, David and Baum, Thomas and Kralj, Anna and Robinson, Richard and Ritchie, Brent and Olsen, Mark (2014) The Asia-Pacific tourism workforce of the future : using Delphi techniques to identify possible scenarios. Journal of Travel Research. ISSN 0047-2875

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This article addresses the challenges of long-term planning for a tourism workforce at a regional level, a significant yet underconceptualized area in the literature. We draw on Yeoman's future thinking techniques to generate a four-quadrant matrix designed to facilitate the development of scenarios that identify workforce challenges the tourism sector in the Asia- Pacific is likely to face through to 2030. Applying a modified Delphi technique, an expert panel aided in the formulation of dimensions on which our matrix is based. Their inputs over three rounds informed the development of four scenarios for the future of the tourism workforce in the Asia-Pacific. Utilizing these scenarios or "possibility spaces," the article provides a framework for discussion and a platform for workforce planning and policy within this region.