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Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2009]

Allan, Grant (2009) Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2009]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 33 (2). pp. 18-29. ISSN 2046-5378

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It is five months since the last forecasts of the Scottish economy were published in the Fraser Economic Commentary. In that time, we have seen confirmation that Q2 growth was down 0.8% on Q1 2009, meaning that Scotland has now seen four quarters of consecutive negative growth. The rate of negative growth appears to have slowed, with Q1 2009 seeing a 2.5% quarterly reduction. Scottish GDP in Q2 was down 6.1% from its peak in Q2 2009.