Estimating risk when zero events have been observed
Quigley, John and Revie, Matthew and Dawson, Jesse (2013) Estimating risk when zero events have been observed. BMJ Quality and Safety, 22 (12). pp. 1042-1043. (https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjqs-2013-002246)
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Abstract
Assessing the risk of complications or adverse events following an intervention presents challenges when they have not yet occurred. Suppose, for instance, a chronic shortage of cardiac telemetry beds has prompted a hospital to implement a new policy that places low-risk patients admitted to ‘rule out myocardial infarction’ in regular ward beds (ie, with no telemetry). After 6 months and the admission of 100 such patients, no cardiac arrests or other untoward events have occurred. This absence of harm (ie, zero adverse events) indicates a low risk, but clearly we cannot infer a risk of zero on the basis of only 100 patients. But, what can we say about the true underlying risk?
ORCID iDs
Quigley, John ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7253-8470, Revie, Matthew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0130-8109 and Dawson, Jesse;-
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Item type: Article ID code: 46413 Dates: DateEvent2013Published19 August 2013Published OnlineSubjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Risk Management Department: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 07 Jan 2014 11:34 Last modified: 04 Oct 2024 00:20 URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/46413