Introducción al modelo clásico de juicio estructurado de expertos : breve recuento del pasado y una aplicación reciente

Nápoles, Oswaldo Morales and Cooke, Roger M (2009) Introducción al modelo clásico de juicio estructurado de expertos : breve recuento del pasado y una aplicación reciente. CIENCIA ergo sum, 16 (3). pp. 309-318.

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Abstract

The use of experts' opinions in science and decision making has been a common practice especially after the postwar period of the Second World War. The use of these opinions with methods that allow evaluation and validation on a scientific basis is more recent. This article presents an introduction to the classical model of structured expert judgment. This method has been designed to reach a rational consensus. A brief historical overview is presented. Two main concepts of the method (calibration and information) are discussed. A recent application that makes use of the method is briefly presented.