Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability : enhancing the scenario method
Wright, George and Goodwin, P (2009) Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability : enhancing the scenario method. International Journal of Forecasting, 25 (4). pp. 813-825. ISSN 0169-2070 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019)
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In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of causality. Although we demonstrate that the scenario method contains weaknesses, we identify a potential for improvement. Four general principles that should help to enhance the role of scenario planning when predictability is low are discussed: (i) challenging mental frames, (ii) understanding human motivations, (iii) augmenting scenario planning through adopting the approach of crisis management, and (iv) assessing the flexibility, diversity, and insurability of strategic options in a structured option-against-scenario evaluation.
ORCID iDs
Wright, George ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4350-7800 and Goodwin, P;-
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Item type: Article ID code: 44786 Dates: DateEventOctober 2009PublishedSubjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management Department: Strathclyde Business School > Strategy and Organisation Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 11 Sep 2013 13:56 Last modified: 21 Dec 2024 12:35 URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/44786