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Open Access research with a European policy impact...

The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde's Open Access research outputs. Strathprints provides access to thousands of Open Access research papers by Strathclyde researchers, including by researchers from the European Policies Research Centre (EPRC).

EPRC is a leading institute in Europe for comparative research on public policy, with a particular focus on regional development policies. Spanning 30 European countries, EPRC research programmes have a strong emphasis on applied research and knowledge exchange, including the provision of policy advice to EU institutions and national and sub-national government authorities throughout Europe.

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Evidential model ranking without likelihoods

Vyshemirsky, Vladislav (2012) Evidential model ranking without likelihoods. In: MASAMB, 2012-04-10 - 2012-04-11.

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Abstract

We present a probabilistic formulation of the Approximate Bayesian Computation scheme that allows evidential ranking of alternative models without direct use of a likelihood function. This approach is particularly important when ranking of several sophisticated stochastic models is desired, and the likelihood is either too complex or impossible to define. We suggest a modification of a Sequential Monte-Carlo sampler that uses ideas of Path Sampling to estimate an approximation to marginal likelihoods as a measure of evidence support. We demonstrate applications of this method on a problem of ranking alternative models of cancerous tumour growth using unique data from three cancerous spheroid lines.