Forecasting the impacts of the electrification of heat, cooling and mobility in future net zero urban areas

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Kelly, Nicolas and Flett, Graeme Hamilton and Rida, Mohamad (2024) Forecasting the impacts of the electrification of heat, cooling and mobility in future net zero urban areas. In: uSIM2024, 2024-11-25 - 2024-11-25, Edinburgh Climate Change Institute.

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Abstract

The electrification of heat, increased demand for cooling in buildings and the charging of electric vehicles by commuters as the UK transitions to net zero, poses a significant challenge for urban electricity networks. Growth in peak electrical demand could result in the need for substantial investment in infrastructure, ultimately leading to costs for consumers. Conversely, there are many measures that could mitigate demand growth including improved building fabric efficiency, load management and local generation from PV. Using a case study of Glasgow City Centre, a modelling approach which uses minimal stock data along with a combination of building simulation, existing building archetypes, an EV charging model and a custom urban energy system modelling tool is used to predict peak demand changes for secondary substations for a set of future energy scenarios. The results indicate that, for most of the secondary substations modelled, the impacts of the electrification of heating and transport can be offset or reversed by building efficiency improvements and load management, with most substations showing only a modest increase in demand or a demand decrease. However, for those substations where EV charging demand dominated, peak demand increased substantially.

ORCID iDs

Kelly, Nicolas ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6517-5942, Flett, Graeme Hamilton ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8255-5223 and Rida, Mohamad ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9301-7079;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)