Bayesian Inference in High-Dimensional Time-varying Parameter Models using Integrated Rotated Gaussian Approximations

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Huber, Florian and Koop, Gary and Pfarrhofer, Michael (2023) Bayesian Inference in High-Dimensional Time-varying Parameter Models using Integrated Rotated Gaussian Approximations. Discussion paper. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

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Abstract

Researchers increasingly wish to estimate time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions which involve a large number of explanatory variables. Including prior information to mitigate over-parameterization concerns has led to many using Bayesian methods. However, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be very computationally demanding. In this paper, we develop computationally efficient Bayesian methods for estimating TVP models using an integrated rotated Gaussian approximation (IRGA). This exploits the fact that whereas constant coeficients on regressors are often important, most of the TVPs are often unimportant. Since Gaussian distributions are invariant to rotations we can split the the posterior into two parts: one involving the constant coeficients, the other involving the TVPs. Approximate methods are used on the latter and, conditional on these, the former are estimated with precision using MCMC methods. In empirical exercises involving artificial data and a large macroeconomic data set, we show the accuracy and computational benefits of IRGA methods.

ORCID iDs

Huber, Florian, Koop, Gary ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6091-378X and Pfarrhofer, Michael;
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