Transport-energy modelling in sub-Saharan Africa : innovations and opportunities to support informed policymaking towards equitable, clean access for all

Sturgess, David and Mitullah, Winnie and Msoni, Malindi and Chivunga, Joyce and Dzisi, Emmanuel and Morrissey, Helen and Boateng, Festival and Nkurunziza, Alphonse and Agbevivi, Doris and Kadewa, Wilfred and Pierard, Elena and Orjuela Mendoza, Juan Pablo and Usher, Will and Dalkmann, Holger and Dixon, James (2024) Transport-energy modelling in sub-Saharan Africa : innovations and opportunities to support informed policymaking towards equitable, clean access for all. Zenodo. (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14042944)

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Abstract

An effective transport system provides equitable, clean access to goods and services. Transitions towards this shared goal entail co-evolution between industry, technology, markets, policy, culture and civil society. System models and analytical tools provide a useful quantitative backdrop in building policy, project and investment pipelines towards realising this goal. Due to the unique challenges shared by the majority of sub-Saharan African (SSA) states, including their heavy dependence on imported second-hand vehicle markets, the dominance of popular transport for serving passenger travel demand and chronic data availability constraints, the application of High-Income Country (HIC)-based transport-energy models to SSA contexts tend to offer only vague approximations to local dynamics. Innovative approaches are needed to develop models to support informed decision-making given these challenges. In this policy brief, we: 1. Set out the challenges faced by SSA countries in developing fit-for-purpose system models and analytical tools to support decision makers towards equitable, clean access for all; 2. Detail innovations to meet these requirements, given the unique and persisting challenges, and identify opportunities present to enable these innovations; and 3. Set out a framework for the development of SSA context-appropriate system models and analytical tools to support transport-energy transitions towards equitable, clean access.

ORCID iDs

Sturgess, David, Mitullah, Winnie, Msoni, Malindi, Chivunga, Joyce, Dzisi, Emmanuel, Morrissey, Helen, Boateng, Festival, Nkurunziza, Alphonse, Agbevivi, Doris, Kadewa, Wilfred, Pierard, Elena, Orjuela Mendoza, Juan Pablo, Usher, Will, Dalkmann, Holger and Dixon, James ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8930-805X;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)