A macro-level analysis of the socio-economic impacts of climate change driven water scarcity : incorporating behavioural and resilience aspects
Ross, Andrew G and Connolly, Kevin and Vögele, Stefan and Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm (2024) A macro-level analysis of the socio-economic impacts of climate change driven water scarcity : incorporating behavioural and resilience aspects. Water Research X, 23. 100223. ISSN 2589-9147 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wroa.2024.100223)
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Abstract
Recognising the urgent need to address water scarcity resulting from climate change, there is a growing push to enhance the resilience of water (and related) systems. For instance, policymakers are now urging companies to shift from short-term focused strategies towards long-term approaches to effectively manage water scarcity. This paper utilises a custom-built dynamic multisectoral model to assess the socio-economic impacts at a macro-level of temporary water scarcity. The focus of the analysis is to identify the effects that varying levels of investment foresight may have on economic resilience. Specifically, the model incorporates often overlooked factors such as behavioural and resilience aspects. By considering these key elements, a more comprehensive understanding of the system-wide implications of water scarcity on the broader economy is provided. The analysis shows how firms' foresight, or lack thereof, impacts their response to water scarcity and the subsequent impact on the economy. Sector-specific analyses shed light on the potential negative impacts of water scarcity on sectors like agriculture, food, and electricity production and distribution. Yet, the analysis also reveals that certain sectors can benefit from competitiveness effects, which can mitigate the adverse economic implications of water scarcity. However, it should be noted that these sectors may contribute to a catch-up effect on water use. The policy recommendations arising from this research emphasise the promotion of anticipation and preparedness among firms. It is crucial to prioritise resilience-building measures in all sectors, whether they directly rely on water or not.
ORCID iDs
Ross, Andrew G, Connolly, Kevin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2333-2211, Vögele, Stefan and Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm;-
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Item type: Article ID code: 88937 Dates: DateEvent1 May 2024Published20 April 2024Published Online1 April 2024AcceptedSubjects: Social Sciences > Commerce
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > Physical geography > Hydrology. WaterDepartment: Strathclyde Business School > Economics
Strathclyde Business School > Fraser of Allander InstituteDepositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 23 Apr 2024 15:02 Last modified: 31 Oct 2024 01:56 URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/88937