Towards equitable climate-compatible transport pathways in Kenya : modelling co-created scenarios using a socio-technical approach

Dixon, James and Pierard, Elena and Mwanzia, Patrick and Onjala, Joseph and Ondanje, Warren and Giki, Paschal and Oduor, Joshua and Courtright, Thomas and Muhia, Paul and Maranga, Ignatius and Bundi, Thomas and Mwangi, Francis and Brand, Christian and Balongo, Samuel and Li, Tang and Oyuke, Abel and Mitullah, Winnie and Sivakumar, Aruna and Dalkmann, Holger and Hirmer, Stephanie (2023) Towards equitable climate-compatible transport pathways in Kenya : modelling co-created scenarios using a socio-technical approach. Zenodo, Geneva, Switzerland. (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10222930)

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Abstract

Through the co-development of a set of Kenyan transport pathways and a transport-energy systems model, TEAMKenya, we present a decision-support tool to assist policymakers at regional, national and international levels. The tool can help create policy, project and finance pipelines to support the realisation of climate compatible development objectives in the transport-energy sector. We quantify the impacts of pathways on transport-energy system outcomes including vehicle stock, Summary energy consumption, emissions, fiscal implications of changing fuel tax revenues and grid implications of e-mobility uptake. It was found that Kenya can vastly expand transport services to a growing population in a manner compatible with improving equitable access to mobility and limiting future emissions to comply with its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement. This transition is only possible if policy recommendations, applicable to both Kenyan and international policymakers, are met.

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