The evolution and determinants of the non-performing loan burden in Italian banking

Pancotto, Livia and ap Gwilym, Owain and Williams, Jonathan (2024) The evolution and determinants of the non-performing loan burden in Italian banking. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 84. 102306. ISSN 0927-538X (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102306)

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Abstract

We investigate the factors influencing Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in the Italian banking sector from 2011 to 2017, a period marked by significant challenges. Using dynamic panel data methods and considering both bank-specific and macroeconomic variables, our empirical analysis reveals the complexity of NPL volumes in Italy. Our findings highlight that better capitalised banks tend to exhibit lower levels of NPLs, indicating reduced incentives for engaging in riskier practices. We document an inverse relationship between credit growth and NPLs, suggesting a potential outcome of demand-driven credit expansion. Additionally, the countercyclical nature of NPL stocks is evident, with banks' NPL volumes influenced by the economic conditions of the country.

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