Damage assessment of bridge piers subjected to multiple earthquakes : Markov model vs regression models

Turchetti, Francesca and Tubaldi, Enrico and Patelli, Edoardo and Castaldo, Paolo and Di Pilato, Deborah and Málaga-Chuquitaype, Christian; Chiara Leva, Maria and Patelli, Edoardo and Podofillini, Luca and Wilson, Simon, eds. (2022) Damage assessment of bridge piers subjected to multiple earthquakes : Markov model vs regression models. In: Book of Extended Abstracts for the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022). Research Publishing, Singapore, pp. 69-70. ISBN 9789811851834 (https://www.esrel2022.com/)

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Abstract

Recently developed methodologies based on a probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) and based on a Markovian model for the prediction of damage accumulation in structures subjected to multiple earthquakes within their lifetime are compared. A stochastic earthquake hazard model is used for generating sample sequences of ground motion records providing the reference solution and then used to estimate the probabilistic distribution of the damage accumulated during the time interval of interest. Besides evaluating the effectiveness of each approach, possible improvements of the cumulative demand model are tested. A reinforced concrete bridge model with a single pier is examined as case study and Park-Ang damage index is considered to describe the damage accumulation. The results demonstrate the importance of considering the occurrence of multiple shocks.Recently developed methodologies based on a probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) and based on a Markovian model for the prediction of damage accumulation in structures subjected to multiple earthquakes within their lifetime are compared. A stochastic earthquake hazard model is used for generating sample sequences of ground motion records providing the reference solution and then used to estimate the probabilistic distribution of the damage accumulated during the time interval of interest. Besides evaluating the effectiveness of each approach, possible improvements of the cumulative demand model are tested. A reinforced concrete bridge model with a single pier is examined as case study and Park-Ang damage index is considered to describe the damage accumulation. The results demonstrate the importance of considering the occurrence of multiple shocks.

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