The anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias among frontline employees in supply chain organizations

Doyle, Jake and Ojiako, Udechukwu and Marshall, Alasdair and Dawson, Ian and Brito, Mario (2021) The anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias among frontline employees in supply chain organizations. Production Planning and Control, 32 (7). pp. 549-566. ISSN 0953-7287 (https://doi.org/10.1080/09537287.2020.1744042)

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Abstract

This study assesses the extent the anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias leads to inaccurate judgments among frontline employees in complex multi-stakeholder supply chain organizations. Data is obtained from an experiment-based questionnaire in a United Kingdom based freight forward and materials handling company. Analysis is undertaken using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results suggest that frontline employees within consistently overestimate probabilities when framed in a conjunctive manner. They also consistently underestimate probabilities when framed in a disjunctive manner and also exhibit considerable overconfidence in their judgements. Mixed evidence was found regarding susceptibility to anchoring and overconfidence in terms of level of expertise and geographical location. Findings highlight the critical role of communication in establishing reflective monitoring of, and improvements to, heuristics usage in daily supply chain decisions.

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