Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources : fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass

Speirs, Jamie and McGlade, Christophe and Slade, Raphael (2015) Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources : fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass. Energy Policy, 87. pp. 654-664. ISSN 0301-4215 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.031)

[thumbnail of Speirs-etal-EP2015-Uncertainty-availability-natural-resources-fossil-fuels-critical-metals-biomass]
Preview
 Text. Filename: Speirs-etal-EP2015-Uncertainty-availability-natural-resources-fossil-fuels-critical-metals-biomass.pdf
Final Published Version
License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 logo
Download (782kB)| Preview

Abstract

Energy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates. Yet these estimates are often highly uncertain, frequently incommensurable, and regularly contested. This paper explores how the uncertainties surrounding estimates of the availability of fossil fuels, biomass and critical metals are conceptualised and communicated. The contention is that a better understanding of the uncertainties surrounding resource estimates for both conventional and renewable energy resources can contribute to more effective policy decision making in the long term. Two complementary approaches for framing uncertainty are considered in detail: a descriptive typology of uncertainties and a framework that conceptualises uncertainty as alternative states of incomplete knowledge. Both have the potential to be useful analytical and communication tools. For the three resource types considered here we find that data limitations, inconsistent definitions and the use of incommensurable methodologies present a pervasive problem that impedes comparison. Many aspects of resource uncertainty are also not commonly captured in the conventional resource classification schemes. This highlights the need for considerable care when developing and comparing aggregate resource estimates and when using these to inform strategic energy policy decisions.

  • Item type:Article
    ID code:87815
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    1 December 2015
    Published
    29 March 2015
    Published Online
    25 February 2015
    Accepted
    1 September 2014
    Submitted
    Notes:© 2015 The Authors. Jamie Speirs, Christophe McGlade, Raphael Slade, Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass, Energy Policy, Volume 87, 2015, Pages 654-664, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.031
    Subjects:Technology > Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) > Environmental engineering
    Department:
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:18 Jan 2024 11:07
    Last modified:13 Apr 2024 00:40
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/87815
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)