Wind-wave climate changes and their impacts
Casas-Prat, Mercè and Hemer, Mark A. and Dodet, Guillaume and Morim, Joao and Wang, Xiaolan L. and Mori, Nobuhito and Young, Ian and Erikson, Li and Kamranzad, Bahareh and Kumar, Prashant and Menéndez, Melisa and Feng, Yang (2024) Wind-wave climate changes and their impacts. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 5 (1). pp. 23-42. ISSN 2662-138X (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00502-0)
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Abstract
Wind-waves have an important role in Earth system dynamics through air–sea interactions and are key drivers of coastal and offshore hydro-morphodynamics that affect communities, ecosystems, infrastructure and operations. In this Review, we outline historical and projected changes in the wind-wave climate over the world’s oceans, and their impacts. Historical trend analysis is challenging owing to the presence of temporal inhomogeneities from increased numbers and types of assimilated data. Nevertheless, there is general agreement over a consistent historical increase in mean wave height of 1–3 cm yr−1 in the Southern and Arctic Oceans, with extremes increasing by >10 cm yr−1 for the latter. By 2100, mean wave height is projected to rise by 5–10% in the Southern Ocean and eastern tropical South Pacific, and by >100% in the Arctic Ocean. By contrast, reductions in mean wave height up to 10% are expected in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with regional variability and uncertainty for changes in extremes. Differences between 1.5 °C and warmer worlds reveal the potential benefit of limiting anthropogenic warming. Resolving global-scale climate change impacts on coastal processes and atmospheric–ocean–wave interactions requires a step-up in observational and modeling capabilities, including enhanced spatiotemporal resolution and coverage of observations, more homogeneous data products, multidisciplinary model improvement, and better sampling of uncertainty with larger ensembles.
ORCID iDs
Casas-Prat, Mercè, Hemer, Mark A., Dodet, Guillaume, Morim, Joao, Wang, Xiaolan L., Mori, Nobuhito, Young, Ian, Erikson, Li, Kamranzad, Bahareh ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8829-6007, Kumar, Prashant, Menéndez, Melisa and Feng, Yang;-
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Item type: Article ID code: 87781 Dates: DateEvent9 January 2024Published26 October 2023AcceptedNotes: Copyright © 2024 Springer-Verlag. This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00502-0 Subjects: Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > Oceanography
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > Environmental SciencesDepartment: Faculty of Engineering > Civil and Environmental Engineering Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 11 Jan 2024 11:11 Last modified: 12 Dec 2024 15:14 URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/87781