Devolved fiscal powers, increased competitiveness and "levelling up" : a simulation approach

Connolly, Kevin and Greig, Alastair and McGregor, Peter G. and Roy, Graeme and Swales, J. Kim (2024) Devolved fiscal powers, increased competitiveness and "levelling up" : a simulation approach. Regional Studies, 58 (5). pp. 952-967. ISSN 0034-3404 (https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2023.2276333)

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Abstract

The UK levelling-up agenda includes a commitment to devolution but there has been little attempt to model the operation of possible accompanying regional tax powers. We use Computable General Equilibrium simulations to analyse the local impacts of regional tax cuts. These reduce production costs, thereby stimulating regional economic activity. But the financing of any subsequent deficit and the operation of the regional labour market determines the size, nature and dynamics of resulting economic outcomes. Further, the decision to target labour or capital costs has implications for a range of regional economic impacts.

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