Forecasting U.S. inflation using Bayesian nonparametric models

Clark, Todd E. and Huber, Florian and Koop, Gary and Marcellino, Massimilano (2024) Forecasting U.S. inflation using Bayesian nonparametric models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 18 (2). pp. 1421-1444. ISSN 1932-6157 (https://doi.org/10.1214/23-AOAS1841)

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Abstract

The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors error may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we develop a model for inflation forecasting that is nonparametric both in the conditional mean and in the error using Gaussian and Dirichlet processes, respectively. We discuss how both these features may be important in producing accurate forecasts of inflation. In a forecasting exercise involving CPI inflation, we find that our approach has substantial benefits, both overall and in the left tail, with nonparametric modeling of the conditional mean being of particular importance.

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