The impact of forecasting accuracy on the economic performance of flexibility provision [poster & e-slides]

Howorth, Gary and Kockar, Ivana and Tuohy, Paul and Flett, Graeme and Bingham, John (2023) The impact of forecasting accuracy on the economic performance of flexibility provision [poster & e-slides]. In: 27th International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2023), 2023-06-12 - 2023-06-15, Rome.

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Abstract

Aggregation by Virtual Power Plants (VPP) to provide flexibility to distribution and transmission networks is seen as an important element in the transition to Net-zero. This paper presents work carried out in the SIES 2022 ERA-Net project, which is investigating in detail the possible provision of flexibility by different technologies but thorough a lens of different business models. Forecasting is an important element of a VPP’s functionality and to its commercial success. Forecasting errors are reviewed using real project data and used to simulate an optimisation of project assets using both actual and forecast data, allowing a quantification of the effects of forecasting errors on VPP performance.

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