The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation

Bouhalleb, Arafet and Tapinos, Efstathios (2023) The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 187. 122191. ISSN 0040-1625 (

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It is well established in the foresight literature that strategy tools, such as scenario planning, have multiple reported outcomes. Much of the existing research focuses on direct outcomes, such as identifying uncertainties and developing strategies. While indirect outcomes, such as improving organisational learning and culture, are acknowledged, the existing literature provides limited empirical evidence. This paper focuses on an indirect outcome of scenario planning that has largely been ignored: entrepreneurial orientation. This research investigates whether the use of scenario planning affects key dimensions of entrepreneurial orientation among organisations that engage with it. Our model is tested through a series of hypotheses, taking advantage of a unique dataset of 133 companies from the health sector in France. This study uses a partial least squares (PLS) analysis; the findings show that scenario planning promotes risk-taking and proactive behaviour, but does not affect the innovativeness of organisations that use it. Based on these findings, we theorise about the impact of scenario planning on the entrepreneurial behaviour of organisations and discuss the practical implications of this research.