Uncertainty quantification in tidal energy power performance assessment

Evans, Luke and Sellar, Brian and Ashton, Ian and Jia, Laibing (2022) Uncertainty quantification in tidal energy power performance assessment. In: 9th PRIMaRE Conference on Marine Renewable Energy, 2022-07-06 - 2022-07-07.

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Power performance assessment details how efficiently tidal energy converters convert kinetic energy into electrical [1]. Uncertainties arise from model assumptions and the inexact specification of physical and numerical model parameters [2]. Uncertainties can greatly affect power estimates for a given site, thus classifying them and reducing them where possible is important [3]. The purpose of the assessment of power is the production of the power curve, this requires a robust flow velocity measurement to be paired with the corresponding electrical power of the device. A better understanding of uncertainty in power performance, at this stage, will better prepare developers for producing an accurate power curve for their tidal energy converter device. Additionally, help locate areas of large uncertainty, which then further work can support the reduction of these quantities. The primary motivation behind this work is to increase confidence in the industry by improving the understanding of uncertainty in power performance assessments.