Dynamism in complex engineering : explaining uncertainty growth through uncertainty masking

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Kreye, Melanie E. and Cash, Philip J. and Parraguez Ruiz, Pedro and Maier, Anja (2022) Dynamism in complex engineering : explaining uncertainty growth through uncertainty masking. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 69 (4). pp. 1552-1564. ISSN 0018-9391 (https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2019.2937570)

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Abstract

The development of uncertainty over the progression of a project (i.e., dynamism) is a central issue in engineering management; however, it has been little explored. In this article, we answer the question of how uncertainty develops over the course of complex engineering. We present a case of a renewable energy power plant where we performed content analysis on over 54 000 e-mails. The findings reveal a new mechanism affecting the uncertainty development. We call this mechanism 'uncertainty masking' and define it as the process through which a 'root uncertainty' is misidentified by the project team, resulting in the creation and management of a 'symptomatic uncertainty.' The root and symptomatic uncertainty types compound over time and hamper uncertainty resolution, leading to growth in the level of uncertainty during later project stages. We describe the impact of uncertainty masking on the u-shape level of uncertainty in the case project. This article contributes to the engineering-management literature by explaining the observations of uncertainty growth, which existing theory is unable to explain. We, thus, significantly advance uncertainty theory in engineering management.

ORCID iDs

Kreye, Melanie E., Cash, Philip J., Parraguez Ruiz, Pedro and Maier, Anja ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3890-6452;
  • Item type:Article
    ID code:78093
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    1 August 2022
    Published
    12 September 2019
    Published Online
    12 August 2019
    Accepted
    Notes:© 2021 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting /republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
    Subjects:Technology > Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
    Department:Faculty of Engineering > Design, Manufacture and Engineering Management
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:08 Oct 2021 11:57
    Last modified:17 Dec 2024 01:24
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/78093
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