Predictability of scrub typhus incidences time series in Thailand

Bondarenko, Valeria and Mazzega, Pierre and Lajaunie, Claire (2021) Predictability of scrub typhus incidences time series in Thailand. Engineering Proceedings, 5 (1). 44. ISSN 2673-4591 (https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2021005044)

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Abstract

Scrub typhus, an infectious disease caused by a bacterium transmitted by "chigger" mites, constitutes a public health problem in Thailand. Predicting epidemic peaks would allow implementing preventive measures locally. This study analyses the predictability of the time series of incidence of scrub typhus aggregated at the provincial level. After stationarizing the time series, the evaluation of the Hurst exponents indicates the provinces where the epidemiological dynamics present a long memory and are predictable. The predictive performances of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average model), ARFIMA (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) and fractional Brownian motion models are evaluated. The results constitute the reference level for the predictability of the incidence data of this zoonosis.

  • Item type:Article
    ID code:78091
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    13 July 2021
    Published
    1 July 2021
    Accepted
    Subjects:Medicine
    Science > Microbiology > Virology
    Department:UNSPECIFIED
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:08 Oct 2021 10:52
    Last modified:09 Apr 2024 02:44
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/78091
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