Pursuing alternative demand forecasting approaches in the tourism sector

Gounaris, Spiros; Kavoura, Androniki and Havlovic, Stephen J. and Totskaya, Natalya, eds. (2021) Pursuing alternative demand forecasting approaches in the tourism sector. In: Strategic Innovative Marketing and Tourism in the COVID-19 Era. Springer Proceedings in Business & Economics . Springer, Switzerland, pp. 1-9. ISBN 978-3-030-66154-0 (https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-66154-0_1)

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Abstract

Relying on econometric principles and modelling has been the dominant in developing models to forecast demand for tourism services. But this is not necessarily the best approach since such models extrapolate the past into the future through a linear perspective. At the same time, this approach fails to incorporate the dynamic nature of travelers behaviour and choices resulting from various emerging conditions. With this mind, we explain in detail the key limitations of the dominant approach to modelling demand and propose an alternative, fresh view that can improve the accuracy and relevance of the prognosis. We also offer a proposed research design to accommodate the requirements of this fresh approach, while explaining who and how would benefit from my proposed method.

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