The Macroeconomic Impacts of a Universal Basic Income : An Application to Scotland
Connolly, Kevin and Eiser, David and Kumar, Ashwin and McGregor, Peter G. and Roy, Graeme (2020) The Macroeconomic Impacts of a Universal Basic Income : An Application to Scotland. Discussion paper. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.
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Abstract
UBI is defined as a payment made to all citizens in a region/ nation that is unconditional, permanent and substantial. We explore the macroeconomic consequences of such a UBI proposal for a regional economy, introduced on a fiscally neutral basis. We use Scotland, a country where the First Minister has indicated her support for the principle behind the idea, to illustrate the application of our analytical approach. The implementation of such a UBI at scale represents a major societal shift that involves substantial rises in taxation as well as in payments. Much of the existing empirical evidence relates to schemes that are small and in which the beneficiaries bear none of the costs, so its applicability here is questionable. Our approach combines microsimulation, to identify the immediate impact of the UBI on the tax/benefit system and distribution of income, with macroeconomic modelling to identify and analyse the wider economic impact of potential behavioural responses. The macroeconomic impact of the UBI depends critically on workers’ and potential migrants’ behavioural responses to the increase in taxation as well as to increased benefits. However, it seems clear that any positive stimulus to productivity as a consequence, for example, of reduced precarity and increased training would need to be substantial to offset any adverse impact on the scale of economic activity, unless policymakers succeed in securing a social contract that dampens or eliminates workers’ pressure for higher wages in response to a reduction in take home pay.
ORCID iDs
Connolly, Kevin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2333-2211, Eiser, David, Kumar, Ashwin, McGregor, Peter G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1221-7963 and Roy, Graeme;-
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Item type: Monograph(Discussion paper) ID code: 73797 Dates: DateEvent31 August 2020PublishedNotes: Strathclyde Discussion Papers in Economics No. 20-10. Subjects: Social Sciences > Economic Theory Department: Strathclyde Business School > Economics
Strathclyde Business School > Fraser of Allander InstituteDepositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 10 Sep 2020 15:57 Last modified: 29 Oct 2024 01:29 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/73797