Scenario planning : is the 'box' black or clear? It depends

Frith, David and Tapinos, Efstathios (2020) Scenario planning : is the 'box' black or clear? It depends. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 158. 120170. ISSN 0040-1625 (

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This paper responds to a debate concerning the gap in the knowledge of scenario planning literature. We propose a dichotomy in the scenario planning research: i) investigating the activities undertaken within interventions, and ii) studying how these activities lead to the reported outcomes. In our view, there is a plethora of on-going research on the first, but we have sought to address a significant gap in the latter.