Analytic probabilistic safety analysis under severe uncertainty

Sadeghi, Jonathan and de Angelis, Marco and Patelli, Edoardo (2020) Analytic probabilistic safety analysis under severe uncertainty. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 6 (1). 04019019. ISSN 2376-7642

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    Abstract

    Exact analytic expressions are given to evaluate the reliability of systems consisting of components, connected in parallel or series, subject to imprecise failure distributions. We also proposed a simplified version of the first-order reliability method to deal with imprecision. This development allows engineers to evaluate the reliability of systems without having to resort to optimization techniques and/or Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, this framework does not need to assume a distribution for the epistemic uncertainty, which permits a robust analysis even with limited data. In this way, the approach removes a significant barrier to the modeling of epistemic uncertainties in industrial probabilistic safety analysis workflows.

    Creators(s): Sadeghi, Jonathan, de Angelis, Marco and Patelli, Edoardo ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5007-7247;
    Item type:Article
    ID code:71745
    Keywords:system reliability, failure distribution, Monte Carlo simulation, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), Civil and Structural Engineering, Building and Construction, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
    Subjects:Technology > Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
    Department:Faculty of Engineering > Civil and Environmental Engineering
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:11 Mar 2020 15:22
    Last modified:07 Sep 2020 04:31
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/71745
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