Analytic probabilistic safety analysis under severe uncertainty
Sadeghi, Jonathan and de Angelis, Marco and Patelli, Edoardo (2020) Analytic probabilistic safety analysis under severe uncertainty. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 6 (1). 04019019. ISSN 2376-7642
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Abstract
Exact analytic expressions are given to evaluate the reliability of systems consisting of components, connected in parallel or series, subject to imprecise failure distributions. We also proposed a simplified version of the first-order reliability method to deal with imprecision. This development allows engineers to evaluate the reliability of systems without having to resort to optimization techniques and/or Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, this framework does not need to assume a distribution for the epistemic uncertainty, which permits a robust analysis even with limited data. In this way, the approach removes a significant barrier to the modeling of epistemic uncertainties in industrial probabilistic safety analysis workflows.
Creators(s): |
Sadeghi, Jonathan, de Angelis, Marco and Patelli, Edoardo ![]() | Item type: | Article |
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ID code: | 71745 |
Keywords: | system reliability, failure distribution, Monte Carlo simulation, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), Civil and Structural Engineering, Building and Construction, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality |
Subjects: | Technology > Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) |
Department: | Faculty of Engineering > Civil and Environmental Engineering |
Depositing user: | Pure Administrator |
Date deposited: | 11 Mar 2020 15:22 |
Last modified: | 15 Feb 2021 02:18 |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/71745 |
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