Visualisation of probabilistic access forecasts for offshore operations

Gilbert, C and Browell, J and McMillan, D (2019) Visualisation of probabilistic access forecasts for offshore operations. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1222 (1). 012040. ISSN 1742-6588

[img]
Preview
Text (Gilbert-etal-JoP-2019-Visualisation-of-probabilistic-access-forecasts-for-offshore-operations)
Gilbert_etal_JoP_2019_Visualisation_of_probabilistic_access_forecasts_for_offshore_operations.pdf
Final Published Version
License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 logo

Download (378kB)| Preview

    Abstract

    Access forecasting aims to predict the quality of transfer of maintenance technicians to/from vessels and the constituent offshore structures at the wind farm. This is highly dependent on sea state conditions as well as other environmental factors such as visibility. Typically, scheduling or dispatch decisions are made on the basis of deterministic forecasts of significant wave height, often coupled with service contracts where transfers are expected to be attempted below a threshold significant wave height. However, there is always uncertainty in a weather prediction which can be accounted for by probabilistic forecasts. The aim of this work is to explore visualisation ideas for transforming vessel specific access forecasts into an interpretable and intuitive decision-support tool. Three simple methods are proposed based on a score out of 10, classification of transfer conditions, and a threshold score. Methods for summarising access conditions for 2-5 days ahead are also developed. This new forecasting and visualisation capability has significant implications for marine coordinators and skippers who will be able to make better informed safety-critical decisions, with the potential for reductions in the cost-of-energy offshore.