Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics : A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach

Jochmann, Markus (2010) Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics : A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach. Discussion paper. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

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    Abstract

    This paper uses an infinite hidden Markov model (IHMM) to analyze U.S. inflation dynamics with a particular focus on the persistence of inflation. The IHMM is a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling structural breaks. It allows for an unknown number of breakpoints and is a flexible and attractive alternative to existing methods. We found a clear structural break during the recent financial crisis. Prior to that, inflation persistence was high and fairly constant.