A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Analysis of the 2010 UK General Election

Jensen, Christa and Lacombe, Donald and McIntyre, Stuart (2010) A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Analysis of the 2010 UK General Election. Discussion paper. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

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Abstract

The Conservative Party won the 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom, gaining the most votes and seats of any single party. Using Bayesian spatial econometric methods, we show that significant spatial dependence exists in Conservative voting behaviour and select the spatial Durbin model as the best model to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines these spatial effects as well as the effects of a range of economic, socio-economic, and political variables. Perhaps the most interesting result is that incumbency has effects beyond the incumbents own constituency

ORCID iDs

McIntyre, Stuart ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0640-7544

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• Item metadata

  Item type:	Monograph(Discussion paper)
  ID code:	67815
  Dates:	Date Event 5 April 2010 Published
  Notes:	Published as a paper within the Discussion Papers in Economics, No. 10-24 (2010) Initially published in 2010 - paper updated in April 2011.
  Subjects:	Social Sciences > Economic Theory Political Science Social Sciences > Statistics
  Department:	Strathclyde Business School > Economics
  Depositing user:	Pure Administrator
  Date deposited:	14 May 2019 11:51
  Last modified:	11 Nov 2024 16:04
  Related URLs:	Publisher
  URI:	https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/67815