Modelling the effect of a novel autodissemination trap on the spread of dengue in Shah Alam and Malaysia

Liang, Y. and Ahmad Mohiddin, M. N. and Bahauddin, R. and Hidayatul, F. O. and Nazni, W. A. and Lee, H. L. and Greenhalgh, D. (2019) Modelling the effect of a novel autodissemination trap on the spread of dengue in Shah Alam and Malaysia. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2019. 1923479. ISSN 1748-6718

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    Abstract

    In this paper, we will start off by introducing the classical Ross-Macdonald model for vector-borne diseases which we use to describe the transmission of dengue between humans and Aedes mosquitoes in Shah Alam, which is a city and the state capital of Selangor, Malaysia. We will focus on analysing the effect of using the Mosquito Home System (MHS), which is an example of an autodissemination trap, in reducing the number of dengue cases by changing the Ross-Macdonald model. By using the national dengue data from Malaysia, we are able to estimate , which represents the initial growth rate of the dengue epidemic, and this allows us to estimate the number of mosquitoes in Malaysia. A mathematical expression is also constructed which allows us to estimate the potential number of breeding sites of Aedes mosquitoes. By using the data available from the MHS trial carried out in Section 15 of Shah Alam, we included the potential effect of the MHS into the dengue model and thus modelled the impact MHS has on the spread of dengue within the trial area. We then extended our results to analyse the effect of the MHSs on reducing the number of dengue cases in the whole of Malaysia. A new model was constructed with a basic reproduction number, R0,MalaMHS, which allows us to identify the required MHSs coverage needed to achieve extinction in Malaysia. Numerical simulations and tables of results were also produced to illustrate our results.