Terrorism, Education, and the Role of Expectations : Evidence from al-Shabaab Attacks in Kenya

Alfano, Marco and Görlach, Joseph-Simon (2019) Terrorism, Education, and the Role of Expectations : Evidence from al-Shabaab Attacks in Kenya. Preprint / Working Paper. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

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Abstract

This paper explores how terrorism alters human capital investment by affecting expectations. Using different estimators, we identify a negative causal effect of terrorism on Kenyan primary school enrolment and attendance. Among these, we exploit al-Shabaab's revenue streams and position in the al-Qaeda network to predict attacks. To isolate the significant contribution of indirect mechanisms - like expectations - we use finely geo-coded data on children and their closest schools as well as border discontinuities in educational provision, combined with media and attitudinal data. Moreover, we evaluate the degree and effect of the discrepancy between objective and subjective expectations in a structural model.

ORCID iDs

Alfano, Marco ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5491-2054 and Görlach, Joseph-Simon;
  • Item type:Monograph(Preprint / Working Paper)
    ID code:67449
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    27 March 2019
    Published
    Notes:University of Strathclyde, Discussion Papers in Economics, No. 19-04.
    Subjects:Social Sciences > Economic Theory
    Department:Strathclyde Business School > Economics
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:28 Mar 2019 10:09
    Last modified:11 Nov 2024 16:04
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/67449
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