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Robust design optimisation of dynamical space systems

Filippi, Gianluca and Vasile, M. and Korondi, P. Z. and Marchi, M. and Poloni, C. (2018) Robust design optimisation of dynamical space systems. In: 8th International Systems & Concurrent Engineering for Space Applications Conference, 2018-09-26 - 2018-09-28, University of Strathclyde.

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In this paper we present a novel approach to the optimisation of complex systems affected by epistemic uncertainty when system and uncertainty evolve dynamically with time; we propose a new modelling approach that uses Evidence Theory to capture epistemic uncertainty A system is considered which is affected by the time during the operational life (failure rate, performance degradation, function degradation, etc.). The goal is to obtain a resilient design: robust with respect to performance variability and reliable against possible partial failures of one or more components. We propose to enhance the Evidence Network Model (ENM) with time-dependent reliability functions and decompose the problem into subproblems of smaller complexity. Through this decomposition uncertainty quantification of complex systems becomes affordable for a range of real-world applications. The method is here applied to a simple resource allocation problem where the goal is to optimally position subsystems within a spacecraft