Projects in The ONS 'Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence'

Koop, Gary and McIntyre, Stuart and Mitchell, James and Lisenkova, Katerina and Roy, Graeme (2017) Projects in The ONS 'Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence'. In: Royal Statistical Society 2017 International Conference, 2017-09-04 - 2017-09-07, University of Strathclyde.

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Abstract

This presentation will highlight the work of two projects taking place as part of the ONS Economic Statistics Centre of Excellent, summarized as: Gary Koop (Strathclyde) James Mitchell (WBS) and Stuart McIntyre (Strathclyde) Regional nowcasting in the UK: The project has four aims. Firstly, to produce and disseminate timely model-based quarterly regional estimates of nominal GVA to the same timetable as the UK’s first estimates of quarterly GVA for the UK as a whole. Secondly, to produce historical quarterly estimates of regional GVA, if feasible, at greater levels of regional and sectoral levels of disaggregation using Big Data econometric methods. Thirdly, to produce real or volume GVA estimates, using the ONS’s “experimental” real regional GVA data. To explore the use of alternative ways of estimating regional GVA deflators. Finally, to explore, jointly with ONS staff, the possible use of underlying micro-level and administrative data to produce model-free (or less model dependent) quarterly regional output data. Steve Gibbons (LSE) Katerina Lisenkova (Strathclyde), Graeme Roy (Strathclyde) and Kim Swales (Strathclyde). Improving the quality of regional economic indicators: it is clear there is an increasing focus and attention on regional economic performance and the devolution of powers in the UK. Scotland is at the forefront of devolution and we believe provides a useful case study to begin developing new regional indicators.We plan to undertake two projects, to take forward a stream of work to improve the quality and usefulness of regional economic statistics. The first of these focuses on improving inter-regional trade flows data. The second area of work, which would take place beyond the project end date shown, is to further improve the quality and robustness of regional fiscal data