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Evidence-based robust optimisation of space systems with evidence network models

Filippi, Gianluca and Vasile, Massimiliano and Marchi, Mariapia and Vercesi, Paolo (2018) Evidence-based robust optimisation of space systems with evidence network models. In: IEEE world congress on computational intelligence. IEEE, Piscataway, N.J., pp. 1-8. (In Press)

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    The paper presents an approach to optimise complex systems in space systems engineering, accounting for epistemic uncertainty. Uncertainty is modelled with Dempster-Shafer theory of Evidence and the space system as a network of connected components. A constrained min-max problem is then solved, with a memetic algorithm, to deliver a robust design point. Starting from this robust design point a sequence of evolutionary optimisation steps are used to reconstruct an approximation of the Belief and Plausibility curves associated to a particular design solution. The constrained min-max approach and the evolutionary reconstruction of the Belief and Plausibility curves are tested on one realistic case study of space systems engineering.