Global forecast of antimicrobial resistance in invasive isolates of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae
Alvarez-Uria, Gerardo and Gandra, Sumanth and Mandal, Siddhartha and Laxminarayan, Ramanan (2018) Global forecast of antimicrobial resistance in invasive isolates of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 68. pp. 50-53. ISSN 1201-9712 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2018.01.011)
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Abstract
Objectives: To project future antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. Methods: Mixed linear models were constructed from a sample of countries with AMR data in the ResistanceMap database. Inverse probability weighting methods were used to account for countries without AMR data. Results: The estimated prevalence of AMR in 2015 was 64.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 42–87%) for third-generation cephalosporin-resistant (3GCR) Escherichia coli, 5.8% (95% CI 1.8–9.7%) for carbapenem-resistant (CR) E. coli, 66.9% (95% CI 47.1–86.8%) for 3GCR Klebsiella pneumoniae, and 23.4% (95% CI 7.4–39.4%) for CR K. pneumoniae. The projected AMR prevalence in 2030 was 77% (95% CI 55–99.1%) for 3GCR E. coli, 11.8% (95% CI 3.7–19.9%) for CR E. coli, 58.2% (95% CI 50.2–66.1%) for 3GCR K. pneumoniae, and 52.8% (95% CI 16.3–89.3%) for CR K. pneumoniae. Conclusions: The models suggest that third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems could be ineffective against a sizeable proportion of infections by E. coli and K. pneumoniae in most parts of the world by 2030, supporting both the need to enhance stewardship efforts and to prioritize research and development of new antibiotics for resistant Enterobacteriaceae.
ORCID iDs
Alvarez-Uria, Gerardo, Gandra, Sumanth, Mandal, Siddhartha and Laxminarayan, Ramanan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8530-6954;-
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Item type: Article ID code: 63633 Dates: DateEvent1 March 2018Published15 January 2018AcceptedSubjects: Science > Microbiology Department: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 06 Apr 2018 10:22 Last modified: 02 Sep 2024 00:50 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/63633