Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [March 2011]

Fraser of Allander Institute; (2011) Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [March 2011]. [Report]

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    The Scottish economy may be continuing to recover from recession but the rate of recovery appears to be slowing even when allowance is made for the difficult weather this winter. In the latest quarter – 2010q3 – for which there is official data Scottish GDP grew by 0.5% compared to an increase of 0.7% in UK. But with UK GDP contracting by -0.6% in the fourth quarter and the ONS estimating that only -0.5% could be attributed to the bad weather, it is clear that the UK economy was stagnating at the end of the year. In the absence of Scottish outturn data for the fourth quarter, survey data indicate a weakening of Scottish growth in that quarter and suggests that Scottish GDP performance may have been weaker than the rest of the UK. The service sector is especially weaker in Scotland, the manufacturing sector less so, but construction activity is much stronger here, at least in the third quarter.