Picture of server farm and IT infrastructure

Where technology & law meet: Open Access research on data security & its regulation ...

Strathprints makes available Open Access scholarly outputs exploring both the technical aspects of computer security, but also the regulation of existing or emerging technologies. A research specialism of the Department of Computer & Information Sciences (CIS) is computer security. Researchers explore issues surrounding web intrusion detection techniques, malware characteristics, textual steganography and trusted systems. Digital forensics and cyber crime are also a focus.

Meanwhile, the School of Law and its Centre for Internet Law & Policy undertake studies on Internet governance. An important component of this work is consideration of privacy and data protection questions and the increasing focus on cybercrime and 'cyberterrorism'.

Explore the Open Access research by CIS on computer security or the School of Law's work on law, technology and regulation. Or explore all of Strathclyde's Open Access research...

Towards improved understanding of the applicability of uncertainty forecasts in the electric power industry

Bessa, Ricardo J. and Möhrlen, Corrina and Fundel, Vanessa and Siefert, Malte and Browell, Jethro and El Gaidi, Sebastian Haglund and Hodge, Bri-Mathias and Cali, Umit and Kariniotakis, George (2017) Towards improved understanding of the applicability of uncertainty forecasts in the electric power industry. Energies, 10 (9). ISSN 1996-1073

[img]
Preview
Text (Bessa-etal-Energies2017-Towards-improved-understanding-of-the-applicability-of-uncertainty-forecasts)
Bessa_etal_Energies2017_Towards_improved_understanding_of_the_applicability_of_uncertainty_forecasts.pdf
Final Published Version
License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 logo

Download (605kB) | Preview

Abstract

Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The reliability of system operations and smooth integration of wind energy into electricity markets has been strongly supported by years of improvement in weather and wind power forecasting systems. Deterministic forecasts are still predominant in utility practice although truly optimal decisions and risk hedging are only possible with the adoption of uncertainty forecasts. One of the main barriers for the industrial adoption of uncertainty forecasts is the lack of understanding of the information content and standardization of products, which frequently leads to mistrust towards uncertainty forecasts. This paper aims at improving this understanding by establishing a common terminology and reviewing the methods to determine, estimate, and communicate the uncertainty in weather and wind power forecasts. This conceptual analysis of the state of the art highlights that: i) end-users should start to look at the forecast's properties in order to map different uncertainty representations to specific wind energy-related user requirements; ii) a multidisciplinary team is required to foster the integration of stochastic methods in the industry sector. A set of recommendations for standardization and improved training of operators are provided along with examples of best practices.