Elicitation in the classical model

Quigley, John and Colson, Abigail and Aspinall, Willy and Cooke, R.M.; Dias, Luis and Morton, Alec and Quigley, John, eds. (2017) Elicitation in the classical model. In: Elicitation. Springer, New York. ISBN 978-3-319-65051-7 (In Press) (https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4)

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The Classical Model (CM) is a performance-based approach for mathematically aggregating judgements from multiple experts, when reasoning about target questions under uncertainty. Individual expert performance is assessed against a set of seed questions, items from their field, for which the analyst knows or will know the true values, but the experts do not; the experts are, however, expected to provide accurate and informative distributional judgements that capture these values reliably. Performance is measured according as metrics for each expert’s statistical accuracy and informativeness, and the two metrics are convolved to deter-mine a weight for each expert, with which to modulate their contribution when pooling them together for a final combined assessment of the desired target values. This chapter provides mathematical and practical details of the CM, including describing the method for measuring expert performance and discussing approaches for devising good seed questions.


Quigley, John, Colson, Abigail ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3241-5855, Aspinall, Willy and Cooke, R.M.; Dias, Luis, Morton, Alec and Quigley, John